Morgan Stanley predicts that the annual growth rate of the CPO market will reach 172%, and manufacturers such as Nvidia are expected to seize the opportunity
According to Morgan Stanley's in-depth report, as Nvidia's Rubin server rack system begins mass production in 2026, the CPO (photonic co packaging technology) market is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 172% between 2023 and 2030, reaching an estimated $9.3 billion by 2030. CPO is a new type of optoelectronic integration technology that shortens the electrical interconnection length between optical signal input and computing units by closely interconnecting optical engines and switching chips. It is considered a key technology for solving high-speed transmission of big data in the AI era.

In terms of industrial chain layout, FOCI has secured the position of the only FAU supplier in the first phase. AllRing may supply key optical coupling equipment in 2026, while Sunlight has received a visit from Nvidia CEO to the Taichung factory, and is expected to become a core partner for Rubin CPO system level packaging. Morgan Stanley focuses on FOCI AllRing、 Core enterprises such as TSMC and ASE.
Morgan Stanley also expects Nvidia to showcase some CPO prototype solutions at this year's GTC conference, but this is more likely to be Quantum CPO switches that will be mass-produced in the second half of 2025, rather than products related to Rubin.
However, Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun recently stated that the key technology of CPO, silicon photonics, may take several more years and copper technology will still be used at present. This also means that although the CPO market has enormous development potential, the complexity of technology and yield issues may lead to product delays, affecting the market promotion and application of CPO.